Indonesia: Democratic Uprising Or Western Facilitated Destabilisation?

Open Letter to the Spartacist League of Australia (SL/A)

Dear Comrades,

We were bemused to read your supplement posted on the Red Battler section of your website, dated the 6^th of November, 2025, titled: Indonesia: Where to now? While we understand and expect there to be different analysis of significant political events amongst the various parties of the socialist left, we find ourselves on opposite sides of what may be an ongoing political struggle that may drastically affect the lives of workers in the Asia-Pacific region and internationally. The SL/A appears to view the events in Indonesia around August this year as a kind of imperfect democratic uprising, which was motivated by genuine concerns, and something which has the potential to lead to progressive political change, if not a revolution. On the contrary, we view the events throughout 2025 in Indonesia as a transparent attempt to force Indonesia (its official name is the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia, or NKRI) to break from its economic and political cooperation with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and to abandon its drive towards the strengthening of multipolarity including, but not limited to, its full membership of the non-imperialist BRICS bloc. Indonesia has the largest Muslim population of any nation in the world, even higher than Pakistan.[1] Primarily, the entity which has the strongest motivation for destabilising Indonesia using any means up to and including murderous street violence is US imperialism, with its numerous auxiliary arms and fronts under innocuous sounding names.

When did it start?

The SL/A write that the “wave of large and militant protests which began in late August is among the most significant in Indonesia since 1998.”[2] We can debate over whether these protests are predominantly protests, or whether the protests provide cover for violent riots, but let us refer to them as protests for argument’s sake. The protests in Indonesia in August were but a continuation of similar protests that took place beginning in February this year, and which continued into April. These “Dark Indonesia” (#IndonesiaGelap) protests were a stab at President Prabowo Subianto’s election slogan of “Golden Indonesia” (Indonesia Emas). Yet these protests were astroturfed by the principal actors responsible for almost all colour revolutions across the globe over the last 25 years.

While socialists are not usually supporters of Prabowo, it is clear that his administration was being targeted for tilting Indonesia firmly towards the PRC and BRICS, arguably returning the nation to its roots of hosting the Bandung Conference in 1955 which led to the Non-Aligned Movement. Yet the BRICS bloc is qualitatively a much larger concern for imperialism today. The “Dark Indonesia” protests were astroturfed by the notorious National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the regime change arm of the CIA, by the US AID (Agency for International Development), and by its “NGO” adjuncts such as George Soros’ Open Society Foundation, the Ford Foundation and Pierre Omidyar’s Luminate, amongst others.[3] Why did the “Dark Indonesia” protests kick off in February 2025? It is difficult not to conclude that they started then because barely four weeks earlier, in January 2025, Indonesia was accepted as a full member of the Global South led BRICS bloc. BRICS now contains not only its founding members of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but 15 other nations. Indonesia becoming a full member was a shock to imperialism, as it was the first nation in South East Asia to join, and it soon led to other South East Asian nations such as Malaysia, Thailand and the socialistic Vietnam joining as partner members.[4] Imperialism, for its nefarious interests, must block or break up or sabotage the BRICS by any means necessary. Hence, it set in train its “NGO” industrial regime change complex almost the moment Indonesia was announced it had “switched” to the BRICS.

Precarious economy?

The SL/A paints a picture of an Indonesian economy precariously balancing on the edge of a cliff. They write: “Indonesia has the highest unemployment in South East Asia…the price of food and basic services increases year after year…[and] workers face layoffs and deepening deindustrialisation as manufacturing continues to collapse.”[5] We struggle to understand how the SL/A came up with such a view. It is actually the Philippines which has the highest rate of unemployment in South East Asia, with 5.2%. Yes, it is the case that Indonesia’s unemployment rate is close behind at 5.1%.[6] However, at the same time the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth of the Philippines in the 3rd quarter of 2025 is 4.0%,[7] which is much healthier than Australia, or the US or Europe.

When it comes to Indonesia, however, its GDP growth is a whopping 5.04% in the 3^rd quarter of 2025, which is even higher than that of its major trade and investment partner, the giant PRC. What is more, the island of Java on its own had a GDP growth rate which is higher still, at 5.17%.[8] What this means is that Indonesia currently has the highest GDP growth rate on the face of the planet, even surpassing the acknowledged economic superpower of Red China. Moreover, Indonesia has achieved this staggering growth rate primarily from increased trade and investment from PRC based firms. It is hardly a wonder that Indonesia is orienting away from the West and towards Beijing – a path which in fact many countries are following as they can see which way the winds are blowing.

Even more startling is your claim that in Indonesia is facing deindustrialisation and collapsing manufacturing. Real deindustrialisation is happening in the USA and Europe. In Indonesia, it is more like reindustrialisation. Current data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) state that the non-oil and gas processing sector grew by 5.58% year-on-year in the 3rd quarter of 2025, outpacing overall economic growth of 5.04%. In addition, Indonesia’s factory utilisation rate is averaging 59.28%, meaning that it has much potential for further expansion.[9] There is only optimism, not pessimism, when it comes to manufacturing. Investment in manufacturing in Indonesia reached US $34.5 billion over the past year. Nine new industrial zones have been opened across Sulawesi, Java and Kalimantan. This has created 310 000 new jobs, a 15% increase on 2024.[10] If you are a manufacturing worker in Indonesia, times are looking up! The bottom line is that Indonesia’s economy is rapidly expanding, largely due to extensive trade and investment with China. We fear the SL/A are trying to portray a floundering Indonesian economy in an attempt to portray the August protests, or riots, as motivated by legitimate concerns.

17 + 8 Demands

The SL/A admit that the “17 + 8” demands were “put together and promoted by a coalition of NGO-liberal types and social media influencers..”.[11] Indeed ! It is completely implausible that the 17 + 8 demands were just drawn up by some students angry about the salaries of members of parliament (MPs). They are directed directly at the state: President Prabowo, the DPR (House of Representatives), political party leaders, Police (Polri), Military (TNI) and the Ministry of the Economy.[12] Yet the SL/A seems to imagine that the “NGO liberal types” operate just by themselves, by their own volition. Rather, the 17+8 demands were demonstrably drawn up by the CIA/NGO industrial complex, after decades of implanting themselves in Indonesian society, which put out an image of incorrigible corruption and excess amongst the government. They then pump this out on social media, drawing in impressionable and politically inexperienced youths. Even so, to avoid further inflaming violence, the DPR already conceded to some of the 17 + 8 demands, such as: terminating the housing allowance for MPs, suspending foreign travel, cutting facility benefits (electricity, phone, transportation), and cutting pay for MPs who have been suspended from parliament.[13]

The SL/A does acknowledge that some NGOs and the NED and other elements of the US state were involved, but then claims the protests were genuine because police stations and parliamentary buildings were targeted. Indeed they were – but with EXTREME violence!! Is this normal? Do youths turning up to their first protests charge forward and set fire to police stations and parliamentary buildings? No. This is an attempted regime change operation. In Jakarta, over 1200 people were arrested not for protesting, but for public violence, including burning down bus stops. Three people lost their lives after the parliamentary building in Makassar was burnt to the ground! This type of violence does not occur in a protest which is petitioning the government in some form – it is an attempt to take it down. Washington has an interest in this – but certainly not more than 285 million Indonesians.[14]

The riots in August “coincidentally” came at the same time as President Prabowo was about to head to China for an important meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The SCO is a security alliance, as opposed to the BRICS bloc, which focuses on finance, trade and economics. Prabowo did make it to China, but he was delayed. Indonesia is also fully cooperating with Beijing’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a trillion-dollar infrastructure and trade program linking China with Eurasia, Africa and beyond. In short, US imperialism and its G7 allies have every motivation to break apart and/or degrade Indonesia’s growing integration with what are really its natural allies. Indeed, some are speculating that Washington needs to bring back another Suharto, when Indonesia was a strong US ally.[15] However, the 20^th century is long gone, and times have well and truly changed.

Which way forward ?

There is much more in the SL/A contribution on which we could comment, but we will relent for the sake of brevity. However, the proposal for a “united defence against state repression” we would suggest would be counter productive. Those arrested during the protests or riots, were arrested for damage to public property, and endangering public safety – NOT for protesting. The left should not be involved in a defence campaign of those incited to carry out acts of violence. In many cases, they may actually be paid agents of the Western backed NGOs who carried out the dangerous activity. Moreover, some innocent people lost their lives, so you can imagine what damage would be done by publicly campaigning for such people to not be prosecuted or held accountable.

The SL/A state that “the anti-imperialist struggle is the democratic struggle”. Here we agree. Though what is the process whereby Indonesia joins BRICS, signs up to the BRI, and takes part in the SCO? Sure, this may not be anti-imperialism in the Marxist sense, but it is certainly a step along that road. Indonesia won its independence from Dutch colonialism in 1945. Today, Indonesia is building multipolarity, with China and Russia as key allies. Sure, the leaders of China and Russia and the BRICS are not anti-imperialist per se, but together they are building an alternative to imperialism. Which side should workers of the world take in this process? To ask the question is to answer it.

The question of West Papua is emphasised in your essay. A discussion of this question would fill a separate book. Suffice to say that West Papua is not a nation according to Marxist criteria. It does not have its own language (they speak Bahasa Indonesia to communicate as there are so many tribal languages), it does not have its own culture (over 250 tribal cultures), it does not have its own economy (the economy is that of Indonesia), and it does not have its own territory (the island of Papua is divided, with Papua New Guinea forming the eastern half.) Therefore, “national liberation” as such, does not apply. What is taking place is armed separatism, which often uses extreme violence against those who desire to live peacefully with all others in the archipelago. The SL/A warn that “liberal concern for human rights” is not a basis to win over workers – but then appear to fall victim to such plaintive appeals.

We agree, as you write, that “the workers movement must lead the way”. However, workers in Indonesia, Australia and internationally should be aware with the tectonic shifts taking place in world geopolitics which make a direct impact. World War III – which we hope to avoid – will most likely be imperialism versus multipolarity. Indonesia, along with the overwhelming majority of the Global South, is firmly on the side of multipolarity. Even before kinetic war breaks out, imperialism is organising regime change operations almost at will. Workers need to be aware of them and remain steadfast with the goal of dismantling imperialism and building socialism. This is a huge task, but it will be made easier by the building of internationally linked Marxist vanguard parties. We know you agree with this goal, and we would welcome a discussion on the current tasks relating to Indonesia, Australia, countering imperialism, and furthering the application of Leninism and Trotskyism today.

Yours in Struggle,

Workers League

15-11-2025

www.redfireonline.com

E: workersleague@protonmail.com

[1] https://www.datapandas.org/ranking/muslim-population-by-country

[2] www.iclfi.org/pubs/rb/2025-indonesia (12-11-2025)

[3] www.redfireonline.com/2025/04/21/dark-indonesia-and-astroturfed-subversion/ (12-11-2025)

[4] www.thedailyjagran.com/trending/brics-countries-list-2025-brics-full-member-country-names-their-roles-and-objectives-of-this-group-10250688 (12-11-2025)

[5] Ibid, 2.

[6] www.seasia.co/infographic/unemployment-rates-in-southeast-asia-2025 (12-11-2025)

[7] www.manilastandard.net/business/314665291/philippines-gdp-growth-slowed-to-5-year-low-of-4-0-in-q3.html (12-11-2025)