20-11-2023: In a short space of time, the Philippines has been transformed from a friendly neighbour of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), to one which is being pushed in the direction of a hostile adversary. The election of President Ferdinand “Bong Bong” Marcos Jr has been the catalyst for the tilt towards the US hegemon and away from an ally of the PRC and of the Russian Federation, which was cultivated by the former Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte. In fact, it is potentially much worse than just a shift in foreign policy. As The New Atlas points out, the Republic of the Philippines is being shaped into being South-East Asia’s “Ukraine” – a hapless Nazified proxy of US imperialism destroying itself in a failed war on Russia.[1] However, this rapid about turn is not being implemented in the Philippines without opposition, seemingly from such allies of the former President Duterte as current Vice President Sara Duterte (the daughter of Rodrigo Duterte) and former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. While it is the case that Rodrigo Duterte and Sara Duterte have not always been side by side in politics, it does appear as though the Philippine elite are dividing on the pro-US course of Marcos Jr.

About face from Marcos Jr

The rapid turn away from the PRC and towards the United States of America in political and military affairs is dishonest on the part of Marcos Jr. During his election campaign, he did not at all mention a turn towards the US – the former colonial power in the Philippines – and even gave indications that he would continue the same “peace with China” approach of Rodrigo Duterte. This was little more than deceptive rhetoric. In February, Marcos Jr urged the AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines) to focus on “territorial integrity” in the South China Sea, without mentioning China specifically. He stated that the mission of the AFP has changed, citing “the intensification of the competition between the superpowers”.[2] In reality, the US military has been sailing its warships up and down the South China Sea in an attempt to provoke a response from the PRC, while urging the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei to more aggressively stake their claims to disputed reefs and islands. All of these nations have competing claims against each other, not just against China, and these maritime disputes would not lead to war if it was not for the presence of the US military in the region.

Egged on by the US state, the Philippines has been provocatively stationing a handful of AFP soldiers on the wreck of the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusty World War II ship which was deliberately run aground on the Ren’ai Reef near the Spratly Islands in 1999. Though the PRC has repeatedly asked for the ship to be removed from the reef, the Philippines is attempting to use it as a base for more provocations against China, knowing that the US state backs them in doing so. The Spratly Islands are claimed by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.[3] These overlapping claims would otherwise be resolved in various courts, but for the meddling of US imperialism. The Philippines has been ferrying building materials under the guise of being ordinary provisions such as food, to its few soldiers on the Sierra Madre, further inflaming the issue.

Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela recently stated in an interview that they are launching a “transparency initiative” in relation to conflicts with Chinese boats in the South China Sea, which some Filipinos refer to as the “West Philippines Sea”. Tarriela stated that they would begin filming confrontations between their vessels and Chinese vessels “trespassing” in the South China Sea.[4] In reality, the Philippine boats will be deliberately attempting to provoke a response from Chinese Coast Guard ships in the area, film it, and then sensationalise the clash in the media. Only the Chinese reactions to relentless provocations will be filmed, which will then be painted as Chinese “aggression” in the region. Meanwhile, the sailing of US warships directly through the South China Sea and even around the Paracel Islands in March this year, along with many other such incidents, is claimed by the US government to be a “freedom of navigation” exercise.[5] One can only imagine the response of the US government if China or Russia sailed some of its warships through the Gulf of Mexico and claimed that all it was doing was exercising “freedom of navigation”.

Preparations for war

In a blatantly anti-China move, in March this year Marcos Jr granted the US military access to four new bases around the Philippines, on top of the five existing locations under the 2014 Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).[6] These bases are thinly veiled “forward operating bases” for the US to wage yet more war provocations against the PRC. Without these bases, a coastal assault on China from the Pacific becomes difficult from a point of view of sheer logistics. This has also effectively doubled the US military presence in the Philippines. Not surprisingly, the spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the Philippines released a statement in response, stating that enhanced cooperation with the US could bring serious geopolitical strife, which would not benefit the Philippines – especially if they are dragged into a conflict with the US, China and Taiwan.[7] Former President Rodrigo Duterte was less diplomatic, in his characteristic style. In an episode of his weekly television show in July, Duterte remarked that “..in the event of a clash between the US and China, the Philippines would become a cemetery..”.[8]

Such are the tragic consequences of signing up to become a US proxy – just ask Ukraine. Even if an outright war is somehow avoided, the Philippines under Marcos Jr stands to lose huge economic opportunities by severing ties with China. The Philippines has reportedly canceled three joint rail building projects with the PRC, with the Filipino government now not only seeking no further funding from China, but will supposedly seek alternative contractors for the projects.[9] However, seeing as there are no other nations with the capability to build such rail projects overseas, the Philippine government has effectively canceled this much needed infrastructure. What is more, as with many countries in the region and in the world, China is the number one trading partner of the Philippines. Over 30% of its exports go to China, while exports to the US and Japan combined make up around 25%. In addition, Philippine imports from China comprise around 33% of the total, while US and Japanese imports together amount to only 14%.[10] In short, the Philippine economy would be sacrificed.

The US took control of the Philippines after the Spanish-American war of 1898, and effectively administered it as a colony until the Philippines won its independence in 1946 following the defeat of Japan in the Second World War. Somewhat ironically, Independence Day for the Philippines is July 4, the same date as its former US colonial master.[11] Like many other former imperialist powers with their former colonies, the US still exerts strong influence in the Philippines, and a section of its ruling class – now represented by Marcos Jr – is open to do its bidding. This runs up against the recent legacy of former President Rodrigo Duterte, whose six-year term as President was unprecedented in Filipino history. Rodrigo Duterte was unquestionably the most popular leader ever, with his approval rating hovering around an astonishing 80% for almost his entire term.[12] One of the main reasons for this overwhelming support from four out of five Filipinos was his emphasis on restoring Filipino sovereignty over the affairs of their own country. Duterte famously stood up to former US President Barack Obama and declared that the Philippines is not an American puppet anymore.[13]

While it is true that Duterte did not completely sever all ties with the US, he repeatedly declared that he would never order his troops to launch a war against China. Moreover, he emphasised that diplomacy is the way to settle disputes and “never by force”.[14] In an indication of how pro-war the liberal so-called left has become, even in the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte was criticised for NOT going to war with China.[15] While a host of liberal left parties absurdly decried Duterte as a “fascist”, one of the central mouthpieces of this slander was the Rappler “news” organisation. Yet Rappler itself is funded by the US government, via the notorious National Endowment for Democracy (NED), to the tune of some $150 000 per year.[16] Liberal left opposition to Rodrigo Duterte, and somewhat now to Vice President Sara Duterte, is once again doing the bidding of US imperialism to provoke conflict and war with China.

This course is obviously dangerous for the Philippines, and catastrophic for the region. The PRC is studiously doing what it can to avoid war, despite relentless provocations from Filipino fishing vessels, and now since Marcos Jr assumed the Presidency, the Filipino Coast Guard and military. In late October, after Chinese vessels blocked Filipino vessels attempting to “re-supply” the grounded BRP Sierra Madre on the Ren’ai Reef, the Chinese Embassy urged the Philippines to “take seriously China’s grave concerns…stop making provocations at sea, stop making dangerous moves, stop groundlessly attacking and slandering China, and to tow away the illegally grounded warship as soon as possible so that the peace and stability of the South China Sea will not be jeopardised…”.[17] Given the size mismatch of the Philippines armed forces in relation to those of China, the Philippines would only be goading and prodding the giant PRC if it knew that it was being backed by a great power – the US Empire. And there is no shortage of indicators that the US ruling class is attempting to drive a wedge in the Filipino ruling class between those who want to remain on friendly terms with the PRC, and those who want to gamble the whole house in hostile provocations with the PRC. On November15, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that Washington “stands shoulder to shoulder” with Manila in defending its sovereign rights and jurisdiction in its Exclusive Economic Zone”.[18]

Against war for a desperate Empire

Little could be worse for the Philippines than an insane drive to war against its giant neighbour, on behalf of a declining US hegemon on the other side of the Pacific Ocean. Yet there are already moves against some in the Filipino political class who recognise the irrationality of war with China. Former Senator Antonio Trillanes IV accused former President Duterte of supporting efforts to destablise and stage a coup against the current Marcos Jr admininistration – something which Duterte himself firmly denied.[19] Former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was suddenly demoted from the number two post in the Filipino chamber as the Senior Deputy Speaker. The speculation was that the former President – who still retains some influence from her term in office – was “upstaging” Marcos Jr during his foreign trips, as Arroyo had attended seven of his 13 overseas visits so far. The demotion may have been a warning to Duterte supporters against making moves to replace Marcos Jr.[20] In addition, Vice President Sara Duterte abruptly resigned from the political party with which she won office – the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-CMD). Without mentioning Marcos Jr by name, she stated that her leadership “cannot be poisoned by political toxicity” or “undermined by political power play”.[21] This may have been a move to protect her position while deflecting accusations of moving against Marcos Jr.

Many on the left assume that former President Rodrigo Duterte is a populist right-wing figure for his moves to reduce or remove the insurgency led by the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and its armed wing, the New People’s Army (NPA). However, this only came about as the CPP originally formed an alliance with Duterte soon after he came to office in 2016. This alliance reached the heights of Duterte offering CPP members positions in his cabinet.[22] It was only after the CPP unilaterally withdrew from this alliance, to once again take up arms against the Philippine government, that led to Duterte onto the path of using the AFP to militarily eliminate “communists”. Yet the CPP is a Stalinist/Maoist organisation, chock full of class collaboration and nationalism. Other so-called left organisations such as Bayan[23] and Anakbayan[24] opposed Rodrigo Duterte from a liberal basis, which in practice lines up with the liberalism of Stalinism and Maoism. Unable to comprehend why Duterte gained and maintained historic levels of popularity amongst working class Filipinos, the Stalinists and liberals aligned themselves with the politics and practice of US imperialism.

Today, Bayan, the CPP and the liberal left are lining up once again with US imperialism for war against China and in favour of Marcos Jr out of hostility to Duterte (Rodrigo or Sara) despite forming their organisations or coming to prominence in fighting the original Ferdinand Marcos in the 1980s!! Filipino workers need to reject this entire mess and seek to form genuine Leninist vanguard parties upholding an authentic application of Permanent Revolution. This is the path both to prevent US instigated imperialist war, and towards socialism in the Philippines, combined with proletarian political revolutions in the neighbouring Asian deformed workers’ states. The future of the Asia-Pacific depends on it.

WORKERS  LEAGUE  

www.redfireonline.com   

E: workersleague@redfireonline.com

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[1] www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATiC301RhYI (15-11-2023)

[2] www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/28/philippines-marcos-jr-urges-military-to-focus-on-south-china-sea (15-11-2023)

[3] www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/09/us-beijing-shipwreck-military-outpost-south-china-sea-philippines?ref=upstract.com (15-11-2023)

[4] www.itv.com/news/2023-11-13/inside-the-filipino-coastguards-transparency-initiative-aimed-at-china (15-11-2023)

[5] www.apnews.com/article/us-china-destroyer-south-china-sea-5f761c49179f622b8c296885c46a2a80 (15-11-2023)

[6] www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/marcos-says-new-military-bases-with-us-be-scattered-around-philippines-2023-03-22/ (15-11-2023)

[7] www.ph.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgdt/202303/t20230312_11039384.htm  (15-11-2023)

[8] www.asiatimes.com/2023/07/marcos-jrs-coalition-ripping-apart-on-us-china-lines/ (15-11-2023)

[9] www.journal-neo.su/2023/11/02/us-shapes-philippines-into-southeast-asias-ukraine/ (15-11-2023)

[10] Ibid, 9.

[11] www.aboutphilippines.org/the-philippines-a-history-of-american-acquisition/ (18-11-2023)

[12] www.asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Duterte-on-track-to-become-Philippines-most-popular-president (18-11-2023)

[13] www.journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2057891120912008 (18-11-2023)

[14] www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1229929.shtml (18-11-2023)

[15] www.rappler.com/nation/170573-philippines-senators-duterte-china-war-threat/ (18-11-2023)

[16] www.manilatimes.net/2022/03/06/opinion/columns/is-rappler-inciting-another-ukraine-in-the-philippines/1835221 (18-11-2023)

[17] www.cebudailynews.inquirer.net/535366/china-tells-ph-to-stop-making-provocations-at-sea (18-11-2023)

[18] www.rappler.com/philippines/philippines-us-defense-secretary-meeting-november-2023/ (18-11-2023)

[19] www.philstar.com/headlines/2023/11/13/2311000/trillanes-accuses-duterte-destabilization-coup-plot-vs-marcos (18-11-2023)

[20] www.newsinfo.inquirer.net/1771200/sudden-demotion-pampanga-rep-gloria-arroyo-loses-senior-house-rank (18-11-2023)

[21] www.newsinfo.inquirer.net/1771350/fwd-sara-duterte-resigns-from-lakas-cmd#: (18-11-2023)

[22] www.asia.nikkei.com/NAR/Articles/Duterte-makes-room-for-communists-in-Philippine-cabinet (18-11-2023)

[23] www.medium.com/paninindigan/what-is-bayan-993af3620c32 (18-11-2023)

[24] www.thenation.com/article/archive/philippines-duterte-dictatorship-anakbayan/ (18-11-2023)

Photo: President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr greets US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin III at the Malacanang Palace in the Philippines on February 2, 2023. http://www.bworldonline.com